Global carrier revenue is expected to achieve a nine percent compound annual growth rate from 2011 to 2016, growing to a total of $5.13 trillion, according to Insight Research Corp.
Perhaps more surprising, Insight Research Corp. predicts that, within that time period, North American carrier revenue growth is expected to rise from $286.8 billion to $662.1 billion, representing an even-stronger 11 percent CAGR.
That might strike you as an optimistic forecast, indeed, given that the largest firms, representing most of the industry revenue, do not report revenue growth that high.
In fact, if the Insight Research forecast is correct, revenue could double between now and 2016. Some will doubt the accuracy of the forecast, though many would be pleasantly and shockingly surpised. If the forecast proves accurate, it also would defy the the general rule that revenue growth for products of most types now is stronger outside the United States than in it.
The forecast also explicitly assumes that North American service providers successfully will grow new revenues at a rate fast enough to compensate for weakening voice revenues, for example.
Compared to an earlier 2008 forecast by Insight Research, the global forecast has lowered North American growth rates and dramatically raised growth projections for Latin America. In terms of segment revenue, the latest forecast projects a 45 percent CAGR for global wireless broadband revenue, 14 percent for fixed-line broadband, about six percent growth for narrowband wireless services and negative three percent revenue change for fixed network narrowband services.
One way to look at the structure of the global market is to note that, by 2016, wireless broadband will account for about 28 percent of all communications service revenue. Narrowband wireless services will account for 38 percent of global revenue.
Altogether, wireless will represent 66 percent of total industry revenue. Fixed-line broadband will account for 11 percent of global revenue, while fixed-line narrowband services will represent 23 percent of total revenue.
In aggregate, fixed line revenue will account for 34 percent of total service provider revenue, on a global basis.