After recently disclosing a 6% growth rate of worldwide shipments of smartphones in 2024, a new International Data Corporation (IDC) report announced its 2025 forecast of 2.3% growth in the smartphone market.
If the projected volume of 1.26 billion units shipped is met, it would be the second consecutive year of improvement for these products, following two challenging years of decline. The forecast is from IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
The report said the smartphone market in the United States is likely to see a slightly higher growth rate of 3.3% in 2025. This is expected even with the new 10% tariffs imposed on goods coming from China, noted IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker Research Director, Anthony Scarsella.
“An aging installed base ready for renewal will positively impact shipments for the year. Although the new tariffs will slightly increase the average selling prices, most consumers in the U.S. purchase smartphones through installment plans, often combined with trade-ins, via the telecom channel. As a result, any increase to [average selling price] in the U.S. is less likely to impact purchase decisions for most consumers,” Scarsella explained.
Building on this, the total addressable market experienced a slight uptick compared with previous forecasts. This growth was driven by the rapid expansion of the Android market, especially in China. National subsidies and a strong, pent-up demand for smartphone upgrades reversed the declines seen in previous years, the report said.
Android is expected to outpace the growth of iOS this year. The IDC Tracker predicts 2.5% year-on-year growth for Android phones worldwide, compared with a forecast of 1.8% growth in iOS phones worldwide. A new subsidies program by the Chinese government is expected to stimulate the Android increases, while U.S. demand for Apple products — as well as growth in emerging markets like India and Indonesia — will boost Apple.
“The ongoing rollout of Apple Intelligence and the recently launched mid-priced iPhone 16E is also expected to fuel demand and keep average selling prices elevated for Apple and will help it capture 45% value share in 2025 despite only 19% of shipments,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
The average selling price of smartphones globally is forecasted to increase slightly to $434 in 2025, according to the report.
A recent report from Technavio forecasted a 4.1% compound annual growth rate in smartphones between now and 2029. That research looked closely at technology elements, noting the growing adoption of AI and sensor fusion technology as growth drivers. It also acknowledged the improved broadband infrastructure as a contributor of growth over the past several years.
