With wireless broadband and cloud computing taking center stage, the market for fixed broadband access equipment will peak this year, according to an excerpt of Infonetics Research’s 3Q11 “PON, FTTH, and DSL Aggregation Equipment and Subscribers” market share and forecast report.
“We expect that 2011 is going to be the peak for the fixed broadband aggregation equipment market. The PON (Passive Optical Networking) spending boom in China, coupled with DSL growth in Central and Latin America and VDSL (Very high bit-rate Digital Subscriber Line) and GPON (Gigabit Passive Optical Networking) growth in the EMEA region created a perfect storm of spending this year, but with peaks come valleys: by 2015, the broadband aggregation market will decline to $5.0 billion, from what we expect to be its high of $7.9 billion this year,” Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband access and video at Infonetics Research, elaborated.
Infonetics sees an ongoing shift away from DSL to more fiber builds in the coming years, although DSL spending will not disappear entirely. Highlights of the report include:
- Global spending on broadband aggregation (DSL, PON and FTTH) equipment declined 3% sequentially in 3Q11 to $2.0 billion, led by a double-digit drop in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)
- Asia-Pacific is the only region to post an increase in broadband aggregation equipment spending, up 3% sequentially
- Year-over-year, from 3Q10 to 3Q11, global fixed broadband aggregation revenue is up a healthy 15%
- Huawei and ZTE continue their lead in overall broadband aggregation equipment revenue, though Huawei’s revenue dropped while ZTE’s increased, significantly narrowing the gap between the two
- Alcatel-Lucent maintains its solid 3rd place lead in the market in 3Q11, while ADTRAN — thanks to its strong quarter shipping DSL in North America, moved into 4th position
- After a 14% increase last quarter, global spending on DSL equipment declined 9% in 3Q11, reflecting a slowdown in some major projects plus traditional third quarter softness
- EPON optical line terminal (OLT) revenue in Japan grew 16% sequentially in 3Q11, as NTT and KDDI increased their FTTH infrastructure spending to convert FTTB+VDSL subscribers to FTTH and deliver IPTV and broadband video services
