New market research from Pike and Fisher predicts that cable companies will dominate new broadband adds by capturing 75% of the total market. P&F suggests that that despite FiOS and U-Verse progress, the majority of telco broadband footprints are still served by DSL, which “consumers are increasingly spurning because its speeds are slower than cable.” P&F also predicts that overall broadband growth will decline by 12% in 2009, with a total of 5.7 million new broadband households up for grabs. Their forecasts are based on “the nation’s economic crisis, which its increasing unemployment rates and slowing housing starts.”
P&F is basically forecasting a continuation of 2008 broadband conditions, when the first signs of slowing broadband adoption became evident. Cable had a great 2008 when put into context of significant drop offs in DSL growth from large telcos. Apparently P&F believes that party will continue. Time will tell. Telcos began serious discounted pricing promotions for DSL in the fourth quarter of 2008, which are continuing into 2009. Those discounts in the face of our bad economy may help move the needle in DSL’s favor,
