The North American Carrier Ethernet WAN services business will grow from $4.3 billion in 2010 to $11.5 billion by 2015, of which $10.5 billion will be earned in the U.S. market, the Yankee Group now forecasts, growing at a 29 percent compound annual growth rate. Managed Ethernet products will grow at about a 31 percent CAGR, representing about 5.5 percent of total Ethernet revenue by 2015.

As you would guess, most of that revenue will be supplied by enterprise customers. But buyers at organizations with up to 499 employees now spend about $516 million, and will be buying about $3.5 billion in 2015.

Within North America, small businesses (those with one to 99 employees) accounted for about 25 percent of total small and medium business Ethernet revenue ($130 million) in 2010.

Yankee Group estimates SMB Ethernet carrier services will grow to about $1 billion in 2015. Despite strong growth in the very-small business segment (those with one to 49 employees), the bulk of actual revenue generated from small businesses will remain in the 50-employee to 99-employee small business segment.

Revenue from midsize businesses (with 100 to 499 employees) will grow from about $387 million to $2.39 billion by 2015.

Large businesses (those with more than 500 employees) comprise the bulk of Ethernet services market revenue. Where firms in that category now spend about $2.7 billion, they will spend $8 billion in 2015.

Carrier Ethernet is becoming a wide area network service tailored for next-generation applications. Cloud-based applications, live video, high-definition telepresence/video conferencing, collaboration and telemedicine are driving the growth.

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