He now suggests that we might have been wrong, and have been applying old rules in a new context, where the predictive value of the older assumptions isn’t as accurate. One might therefore guess that lots of unexpected change will occur as the smart phone experience begins to mature into a very distinct medium.
Reading, social networking, payments, learning, location services, medicine and media are some of the areas where expectations of end user behavior, value and revenue creation could be different than expected.
Think back to Netscape (if you are old enough) when it first was introduced in 1994, or even 1995 and 1996. What were the then-current experiences Netscape enabled? Keep in mind this was before Amazon, eBay and Google, before e-commerce, before web mail, before Netflix, iTunes.
Who would have predicted then, the way the web has developed? Much the same is likely to happen with mobile web and smart phone-enabled experiences.
Unpredictable mobile impact