Global revenue from mobile and fixed broadband will grow 14% between 2022 and 2027 and reach €1.2 trillion (just under $1.2 trillion), according to a global broadband revenues forecast from Omdia. The firm said that monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) will fall €7.48 ($7.30) to €7.16 ($7.00) – 4.2% – during that period, however.
In mobile markets, the firm found that 5G subscriber growth will not be enough to offset ARPU decline because subscribers are not willing to pay a premium for it.
Omdia predicts that in 2027 there will be 5.9 billion 5G subscriptions with a “population penetration” of 70.9%. Residential fixed broadband via fiber will exceed 1 billion subscribers, which is a household penetration of 41.9%.
The downside in the fixed broadband market is that countries with high fiber penetration have seen a drop in ARPU due to more intensive competition. The firm cites France, Spain, and China as examples. There also isn’t a clear monetization strategy once the move to fiber has been made.
“People don’t buy technology; they buy fun exciting new experiences.” Omdia Research Director Ronan de Renesse said in a press release about the global broadband revenues forecast. “There is a misconception that operators should be reselling the technology they buy directly to customers, and it doesn’t work. The network is the bedrock on which innovation and creativity can flourish like 4G and mobile apps. It is not just up to operators to solve the ARPU growth challenge but rather the rest of the digital services ecosystem.”
In March, 5G Americas said that 5G adoption had reached “the rapid acceleration phase.” The organization cited Omdia projections that there would be 1.3 billion connections worldwide by the end of the year.