Recent days have seen a flurry of new launches for video services by both AT&T and Verizon. Markets like Jacksonville, Florida, South Bend, Indiana, and Hampton, Virginia are all now able to receive video from the local phone company in addition to cable and DBS options. And it’s not just the large players either. Smaller telcos across the U.S. continue to launch IPTV services. Avail Media, an aggregator of content and IPTV solutions for smaller telcos, announced 20 new affiliates this week. The competitive posturing continues as well, with all kinds of promotions being offered to entice people to switch services. I live in the D.C. area and noticed a commercial from Comcast the other day promoting free DVR for a year – a direct response to Verizon FiOS’ ongoing free multi-room DVR promotion. The ongoing battle lines seem to be intensifying. Should be fun to watch.

Recent discussion about cable companies beating telcos with new broadband additions has reignited the debate of FTTH and justifying its expense. One argument suggests that cable companies appear to be winning the current broadband battle because their network is superior to a telco’s copper and DSL based network. FTTH would level the playing field, the argument suggests. There is some evidence to support this theory. When you look at Verizon, they did see a big drop in DSL adds last quarter – but they also added new FiOS broadband customers at a much faster rate than DSL customers. But at what cost? In a recent New York Times article, Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein is quoted as saying “… that Verizon would be $6 billion in the hole [as a result of FiOS] when all was said and done.” The New York Times article examines both Verizon’s and AT&T’s strategy for meeting the cable competitive challenge. It’s illustrative of an ongoing debate faced by telcos – should I “bite the bullet” and go with FTTH now, or should I try to extend the life of my copper plant investment for as long as possible. Both sides of the argument have merit.

The extending copper plant argument suggests that you should not strand too much investment in a new wireline network like FTTH, when the technology environment is changing so rapidly. Among other ongoing developments, there is no denying the momentous shift towards wireless for both voice and data. So there is some concern that plowing all this investment into FTTH may not pay off. The New York Times quotes AT&T CTO John Donovan as saying, “The last thing we want to do is overdeploy fixed capacity into the ground where there is no recovery for being wrong by putting in too much.” You certainly can’t disagree with the premise. Of course there is always a flip side to every argument. The competitive race is going on right now. The last thing any telco can do is stand still. FTTH proponents will argue, indecision will just allow cable competitors to pick you off, using a robust triple play bundle, powered by their “superior” network. So while you may not have “over invested” in a FTTH network, you also may not have a stable enough customer base to continue as a going concern over the long term.

What gets lost in this argument, especially when put into the context of Verizon and AT&T, is the impact of wireless. AT&T and Verizon can both afford to somewhat gamble with their wireline network of the future choice. The reality is, both of these companies are now really wireless companies, with wireline assets. Wireline derived revenue is increasingly becoming a minority of their revenue generation. If either of them mis-steps with their wireline strategy, they can afford to adjust accordingly. Other telcos who do not have that luxury are much more at risk with this decision. If you don’t have wireless, then your future obviously rides with broadband. Becoming the best at offering broadband in your given market should be the aim. Deciding on which route to take to achieve that objective will depend on a variety of factors. Factors like consumer preferences, competitor capabilities (present and future), technology innovation implications, and market demographics and firmographics, to name a few. Telcos need a comprehensive understanding of all of these factors before deciding which direction to take. Once these issues are understood, decisions about pulling the trigger on FTTH now, later, or never are much easier to make.

Verizon announced their latest FiOS promotion which offers free HD DVR or free Home Media DVR service for 12 months. Their Home Media DVR is a multi-room DVR service and allows the viewing of recorded programs on up to six televisions throughout the home. Multi-room features are increasingly becoming a competitive differentiator among telco and cable competitors. Verizon’s new promotion is coming on the heels of Cablevision winning a network DVR court case that conceivably will allow them to offer a network DVR product. Network DVR allows service providers to offer DVR services without the need for a DVR capable set top box in the home, resulting in a potentially lower cost DVR service. Time Warner is also eyeing a network DVR product as a result of the court win. Is Verizon’s move a pre-emptive strike against network DVR? Perhaps. There are certainly other considerations for the promo, but it sure doesn’t hurt to have it in your back pocket when/if your cable competitors roll out a network DVR product. The promotion runs through October 4th.

The past few days, I’ve written a post or two about how in 2Q08, big cable “cleaned big telco’s clock.” I use the term big in recognition of the hundreds of small telcos across the U.S. who may not be experiencing a similar “beat down.” More than likely, these advantages will see-saw from competitor to competitor over time. I’m sure we’ll see big telco take it to big cable in quarters to come. But one particular circumstance is worth noting. It’s Cablevision’s continuing success in meeting the competitive challenge of Verizon FiOS. Cablevision reported somewhat envious numbers for 2Q08 that demonstrate they are in no way ceding their business to Verizon. Some facts to take notice of:

• Basic video subscriber additions up by 7K from 1Q08 – adding basic cable subs in this competitive environment is almost unheard of from cable companies




• Broadband customers additions up 52,000 or 2.2% from March 2008 and 227,000 or 10.5% from June 2007




• Digital voice customers up 81,000 or 4.8% from March 2008 and 367,000 or 26.2% from June 2007 – Cablevision leads all cable companies in voice penetration of homes passed at 37.6%




• Achieved ARPU per Basic Video Customer of $132.29 in the second quarter – another industry leading metric




• Cablevision intends to begin their migration to DOCSIS 3.0 and will also be deploying a mesh Wi-Fi network across their footprint, both of which will build additional value into their product portfolio

Achieving these results alone is impressive. Achieving them in the face of competition from FiOS is borderline amazing. This is not a single quarter phenomenon – Cablevision has been achieving these results for some time. It takes a little thunder out of the FiOS buzz and also reveals that FTTH triple play deployments are not bullet proof. Telecom carriers who are looking to FTTH to address their competitive challenges, especially in the face of declining DSL adoption, should look at this example as a cautionary tale. A FTTH network alone may not be enough. When faced with a competitor who is more than willing to take FTTH head on, telcos could find themselves in a “dog fight.” Cablevision has proved that they cannot only compete against one (with billions in backing by the way), they can succeed against it. As FiOS moves into more Cablevision territory throughout New York City, this pitched battle will be worth watching.

Recent quarterly reports from the likes of AT&T and Verizon paint an ugly picture for DSL. AT&T’s DSL growth rate slowed significantly last quarter, adding only 47K net new subscribers. Verizon fared much worse, losing 133K DSL subs. It’s true that Verizon’s marketing attention is FiOS right now, which certainly contributes to their DSL losses, but are those losses a reason for concern? Maybe. In their last quarterly report (1Q08), Comcast reported that 66% of their new cable modem customers defected from DSL. On the surface, one could argue that DSL is losing the broadband war. Perhaps this issue is apropos to Verizon and AT&T alone. Both of them are somewhat distracted. As mentioned earlier, FiOS has all the attention at Verizon and AT&T is in the midst of iPhone mania. It might not be fair to generalize DSL’s woes based on those two alone. As other telcos release their quarterly numbers, we may see a more general trend that either supports or detracts from this potential DSL growth hypothesis.

We all know that broadband growth is slowing. And the U.S. economy and the uncertainty it creates doesn’t foster great conditions for growth in any sector. These factors may be impacting DSL’s apparent slowing momentum. But what’s troublesome for DSL carriers per the economy, is that DSL has historically been the broadband “value play” (across a national average – this “value” price advantage is not present in every market). Logically speaking, in this economy, DSL should be holding up well relative to other more expensive broadband options. To get a true picture of DSL’s potential trouble, we’ll have to closely examine upcoming cable modem numbers. If cable modem additions are not slowing at relatively the same pace, DSL may indeed have a problem. It may signal telecom carriers will have to increase their efforts to make their bundle more attractive and their value proposition more relevant with subscribers. As their quarterly numbers reveal, AT&T and Verizon have less to worry about on this issue, because wireless revenue comes in to save the day for them. DSL carriers who don’t have that luxury may indeed need to ask what’s wrong with DSL. What is your DSL experience revealing for you?

Verizon announced the launch of FiOS TV for business. The service will target businesses like medical offices, banks, building lobbies, restaurants, and other businesses that offer television viewing to their customers. The service is available in all FiOS markets within the following thirteen states: California, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas and Virginia. Pricing starts at $49.99/month.

Verizon used the NXTComm conference to announce the expansion of their 50 Mbps broadband service for their entire FiOS footprint. Verizon says the ultra fast broadband service, which also includes a 20 Mbps upload speed, will be available to 10 million homes. The increases in speed also include 20/20, 20/5, and 10/2 Mbps FiOS plans as well. "The Verizon network is delivering broadband speeds that are unmatched by any competitor," Verizon COO Denny Strigl said during an address at NXTComm. Verizon had offered these speeds in limited markets previously. Strigl added, “We've already had successful trials of the 100-megabit home, which will be a reality faster than anybody thinks." FiOS Internet 50/20 Mbps service is available in New York and Virginia for $89.95 and elsewhere for $139.95 a month with an annual service plan. The 20/20 Mbps FiOS Internet service is available in all FiOS markets for $64.99 a month with an annual service plan.

Verizon is gaining the “king of broadband speeds” moniker for these upgrades. But for how long? Their cable competitors, namely Comcast, have committed to DOCSIS 3.0 deployments that will offer comparable broadband speeds. All of these ultra fast broadband plans are more for public relations battles than significant broadband market share gains – at least for the time being. The pricing associated with these service plans are out of reach for most consumers. For now these moves grab the attention and imagination of the industry, but will do little in terms of impact on earnings and market share. In time that will change. Perhaps, it ‘s a leading indicator of the future where 20 Mbps+ speeds become the norm for residential broadband.

Verizon announced a new FiOS TV promotion, the Summer Movie Pass, which offers 90 days of free access to movie channels, four free VOD movies, and a free 90 day upgrade to their Home Media DVR package. The free movie channels will include Showtime, Starz, The Movie Channel, Encore, Sundance Channel and IFC. The Home Media DVR allows multi-room DVR functionality, among other features. The movie feature package is priced at $14.99/month. The promotion ends on July 19th.

Verizon will begin marketing its Flex Double Play Bundle this week which offers wireless service with broadband and/or FiOS TV, and no need for a wireline. The new bundle applies to Verizon’s DSL plans of 3 Mbps or FiOS broadband plans of 20 Mbps. It does not apply to their 7 Mbps DSL or 50 Mbps FiOS plans, or their DirecTV video plans. The bundle provides a discount of between $8 and $20 per month, depending on the services selected. Verizon spokesman Bill Kula tells the Associated Press, “We remain very bullish on the traditional copper-based phone service, but we also recognize that there's a growing segment of society that wants to have wireless as its principal home service.”

AT&T launched a similar bundle without a landline last year. These moves are recognition by larger telecom service providers of wireless substitution. Carriers with wireless and broadband assets are at a competitive advantage, relative to wireless substitution, because they have the option of pursuing customers who want to cut the cord. From a wireline carrier’s point of view, having the ability to serve customers who leave the wireline behind with a wireless product presents a tremendous competitive advantage, especially against competitors who can only offer video and broadband options. We always talk about the triple play in terms of voice, video, and data. We’ll begin to see the context of triple play expand to include wireless, video, and data.

A very interesting competitive development is taking place in the Dallas, TX suburbs. Verizon is apparently preparing to overbuild AT&T U-verse territory with Verizon FiOS service. This is a first, at least that I'm aware of, where large incumbent "baby bells" enter each other's territory with competing landline services. Apparently, the rules have changed, and dramatically so. Verizon appears to be taking advantage of statewide video franchising rules (as Texas provides), and acting as a cable overbuilder, as opposed to a traditional telecom CLEC. The development was reported in this OneTrack post. I guess the gloves are slowly coming off.

This strategy does go counter to conventional wisdom. Verizon is entering the market as the third triple play provider, competing with well established brands (not to mention the DBS competition). Most business consultants would advise against such a move. What does Verizon have up their sleeve? Do they feel that strongly about FiOS and its competitive advantage/differentiation? Perhaps. It will be an interesting test case to observe. If Verizon has some success with this overbuild strategy, will we see it in more territories where Verizon is geographically positioned against AT&T and Qwest? Verizon's purchase of GTE several years ago gives them multiple territories in multiple states that are closely aligned with incumbent AT&T and Qwest territories. Qwest would seem to be more vulnerable, since they have no triple play network of their own. Of course, if Verizon aggressively moves on an overbuild strategy, AT&T certainly won't sit back and wait - they may decide to strike first. I recognize this is just speculation, seeing as the first household in AT&T territory has yet to be lit with FiOS. But this is definitely a development to keep a close eye on. We may be witnessing the first salvo of an historic competitive battle.