Just look at what happened on “911″, Katrina and other major events to the cell service. Within minutes of these events occuring the entire “wireless” network became saturated and unavailable. Yes, this happens to wireline systems as well, but not at the same rate and volume as with wireless. Even with the new 3G phones, my calls are dropped at a higher rate now than in the past, because of all the new services being offered.

There is only so much wireless spectrum. With fiber optic networks, each strand of single-mode glass can handle multiple terabits of information with the right equipment. Of course, most FTTx deployments only use equipment which can provide more like 160-180 Gigabits per second, but even that is still hugh compared to the average “Wireless WAN or MAN” network.

With most wireless devices, using 3G technology, you only have about 300Kbps bandwidth. Compare this to a typical FTTH network where each subscriber will have from 10Mbps – 100Mbps and if they have lots of money they can get up to 10Gbps. Looking at the current technology being offered to consumers, i.e. VoD, VoIP, HDTV, HDAudio, Gaming, Telecommuting, Telepresence etc. the average bandwidth needed per house hold will be around 75Mbps-100Mbps.

I don’t see any “Wireless” technology being able to offer this much bandwidth to a whole community or even a partial community. Wireless capacity is directly related to number of users per area, and as more subscribers request high bandwidth services, the Wireless network will become quickly saturated and unreliable.

Yes, Telcos can try to extend their current copper based technologies, but those have already proven to be inadequate for the bandwidth demands of the applications available. The real question to ask is not if FTTH, but when? Just look to Japan, Hong Kong, S. Korea and the Netherlands. They have realized that xDSL technologies and wireless technologies are to limited and those countries lead the world in FTTx deployments. Understanding that cost is a hugh barrier for Telcos to overcome, if they want to survive and compete in the broadband game they will have to get creative and find new ways to invest in infrastructure.

Maybe, the US Telcos will follow a model being used in the European markets, where instead of the Telcos owning the infrastructure they lease it from others who make the investment in the fiber deployments. In the end, I don’t think the Telcos or anyone else in the broadband community will have a choice, but to go with FTTH. The capabilities of the fiber is virtually unlimited and the applications are becoming more bandwidth intensive.

Despite all the benefits of wireless, the guided medium will always outperform the unguided. It won’t be practical anytime in the near future to deliver HiDef VOD to 250 homes in an area via wireless. First it’s video, second it’s data, but I believe that wireline networks will remain the standard and primary link both residential and business services.