Second quarter results for broadband growth were a tad underwhelming. There are any number of factors which probably contributed to this slowdown, with the economic slowdown and housing crisis certainly towards the top of the list. But growth is also slowing because broadband penetration has grown considerably over the past few years, now ranging somewhere between 50% to 60% (depending on who you ask), and is beginning to slow down. There certainly is more room for growth, but at some point in the near future, broadband penetration will slow even more as it approaches saturation. It’s anyone’s guess what saturation is, but I would bet somewhere around 75% penetration of households (as a national average - individual markets will vary widely). From a service provider’s point of view, that suggests that posting continuing net adds of broadband customers will increasingly involve convincing a competitor's broadband customer base to switch service.

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Clearwire is feeling quite confident these days. The emerging WiMAX provider held an investor conference and outlined their plan for 4G domination. We're "building the communications company of the future, today," says Clearwire CEO Ben Wolf. Clearwire chief strategy officer Scott Richardson calls it "the second coming of the Internet." It was quite the WiMAX pep rally. Clearwire executives say they intend to build a seamless nationwide 4G network way ahead of their competitors, namely Verizon and AT&T.

From a powerpointware perspective, the strategy looks real impressive. Clearwire intends to offer a five product suite of services which will include residential voice and broadband, mobile voice and broadband, and mobile entertainment. They intend to leverage their investor partners considerably, gaining access to tens of millions of existing subscriber relationships immediately. With their cable company partners, they intend to extend the cable entertainment experience "into the palms of consumer's hands." They intend to utilize Google's Android platform for a suite of "compelling" mobile applications. Intel will contribute by powering millions of end user devices and do for WiMAX what it did for Wi-Fi, in effect bringing it to the mainstream. Wolf says that the average consumer's total household spend on communications, ranging from $109-$258, is up for grabs, and they intend to capture as much of it as possible.

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AT&T posted pretty strong financial results for the first quarter. For the quarter ended March 31, 2008, AT&T's revenues totaled $30.7 billion, and net income totaled $3.5 billion. The net income increased 21.5% from the year-earlier first quarter. Revenue and income growth was fueled by several factors, including:

• 18.3% increase in wireless revenues; wireless data revenues from areas such as Internet access, messaging and media bundles up 57.3%
• 13.2% growth in broadband revenues; 491,000 net gain in broadband connections in the quarter to reach 14.6 million in service
• Enterprise revenues up 1.2% and enterprise service revenues up 2.1%, led by a 22.9% increase in revenues from IP based data services
• Continued ramp in AT&T U-verse TV subscriber totals, with a first-quarter net gain of 148,000 to reach 379,000 in service; on track to reach target of more than 1 million subscribers by year-end 2008

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If you are a gadget guy (like me), this is the best time of year. This week’s CES provides a glimpse into all the cool gadgets on the horizon, as well as all of the possibilities which may or may not make it to market. An intriguing discussion taking place at CES this year is the possibility of bringing an iPhone experience to landline phones. Landline phones have definitely lost their “cool” factor in the past few years. After all, a name like “plain” old telephone service (POTS) doesn’t create a lot of inspiration and excitement. The reality of course is that few services in the history of mankind have had the impact that POTS has. So despite its plain nature, it’s still a mainstay in society and will continue to be for a long time. But how do you breathe life into it when the likes of iPhones and Blackberry’s steal all of the excitement. Perhaps the adage, “when in Rome, do like the Romans” applies.

Enter the OpenFrame initiative. OpenFrame is a landline phone concept on display at CES that aims to inject an iPhone like experience into home telephones. It’s designed to work with broadband, and provides a variety of features including synchronization with contact lists and calendars, viewing TV listings, sending IM or SMS, checking the weather, surfing the Web, etc. It can even act as an alarm clock. The idea of course is to add function and variety to that “plain” old device sitting in the vast majority of homes in the developed world. Another goal is to extend the iPhone experience into the home, allowing the real iPhone’s batteries to recharge, literally. Makers of the OpenFrame suggest that wireless’ main handicap is battery life, so when wireless needs a recharge, customers shouldn’t have to give up the experience.

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Google unveiled their long rumored wireless strategy, code named Android. Also known as the Open Handset Alliance, Android comprises of several leading mobile wireless heavyweights, including T-Mobile, HTC, Qualcomm, and Motorola. Noticeably absent are either of the big two U.S. mobile carriers, AT&T, and Verizon. According to the Open Handset Alliance press release, “This alliance shares a common goal of fostering innovation on mobile devices and giving consumers a far better user experience than much of what is available on today's mobile platforms.” In other words, we intend to shake up the mobile wireless industry.

The heart of this shake up lies in Android, a new mobile wireless operating system platform. Android is “…a fully integrated mobile ‘software stack’ that consists of an operating system, middleware, user-friendly interface and applications.” It will be based on the open Linux platform, and hopes to empower its own extensive developer network, which in turn will create thousands of Android applications for the mobile experience.

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Wall Street analysts predicted several years ago that cable companies would have first mover advantage with triple play bundles, but within a few years telcos would battle back. It looks like a pretty accurate prediction. Cable companies like Cox, Comcast and Cablevision have executed their triple play strategy quite well and amassed a solid triple play subscriber base. As a result they have higher ARPU rates and have managed to continue double digit revenue growth over the past few years, despite the fact that cable penetration in the U.S. is reaching maximum penetration. The tide may be shifting. As predicted, telcos are now flexing their triple play muscle, and companies like Verizon and AT&T are stemming the loss of revenue associated with wireline losses with their own triple play bundles. Businessweek features an article written by Richard Siderman of Standard and Poors which sheds light on how Wall Street views this pitched competitive battle.

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There is little doubt that the future of telecom lies in wireless. Just ask Randall Stephenson, CEO of AT&T. "Wireless is the core of the business now," Stephenson told USA Today in a recent article. This future reality does not mean the death of wireline telephony. Wireline circuits will simply migrate to IP enabled broadband pipes which deliver content of all types, voice included. But wireless connectivity will soon become the status quo. This ongoing migration to wireless ubiquity creates huge operational challenges and perhaps, glorious business opportunities. Those potential opportunities are not going unnoticed by non traditional wireless service providers, who are increasingly eyeing the ownership of wireless spectrum as a hedge for the future. We often forget that the cable industry is sitting on a wide swath of wireless spectrum (unrelated to their Pivot Wireless joint venture) gained from the last AWS spectrum auction. The upcoming 700 Mhz auction has the rumor mill ablaze, with Google making much noise about their interest. The latest potential competitor to the party now is Apple, who is rumored to be eyeing 700 Mhz spectrum. EBay/Skype are also rumored to be considering adding spectrum assets to their fold. The key word in all of this is rumor. We won’t know the reality of these interests until the scheduled January 2008 auction. But it’s intriguing to speculate on the potential of these technology innovators stirring up an already intense competitive environment.

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The news on municipal Wi-Fi is not encouraging. Several communities have recently pulled the plug on launching Wi-Fi, with Chicago being the most prominent. Word is that the citwide Wi-Fi efforts in San Francisco and Houston are in trouble as well. There are a few success stories. Corpus Christi, TX apparently has a successful model, and there are certainly others. Nevertheless, big challenges remain for large scale muni Wi-Fi projects. These challenges are hitting Earthlink hard. They’ve recently announced a restructuring, resulting in the loss of 900 jobs. Earthlink viewed municipal Wi-Fi as a growth engine for them – one they hoped would help replace their rapidly declining dial-up business. Unfortunately for Earthlink and other muni Wi-Fi proponents, the news doesn’t appear to be getting any better. The rise of WiMAX may prove to put muni Wi-Fi to bed for good.

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Sprint and Google announced a partnership to develop WiMAX based applications for the upcoming Sprint WiMAX network. The goal is to marry applications from the Google Apps suite with devices that will utilize the Sprint WiMAX network. According to their joint press release, the partnership will allow customers “… to experience a new form of interactive communications, high speed Internet browsing, local and location-centric services, and multimedia services including music, video, TV and on-demand products.” Sprint hopes this is but one step in a series of high profile steps to build their WiMAX partner ecosystem.

This is revealing insight into the potential future of broadband and wireless. Telephony Online reported yesterday about a new study, The WiMAX Explosion!, from the Boschulte Schnee Group LLC, which purports that WiMAX could have serious implications on telecom and cable carriers. Its ability to offer a robust broadband service, in conjunction with portability provides a compelling competitive advantage. While WiMAX may not provide a true triple play competitive offering, it may not have to. If its promise of mobile/fixed broadband convergence holds true, it may be compelling enough to dissuade consumers from entertaining the triple play proposition in the first place. If WiMAX is able to supplant the broadband and voice component from the triple play bundle, who needs it. Google and Sprint’s announcement only adds ammunition to the argument that WiMAX could be a formidable force. The combination of broadband portability with interactive applications like the ones Google can provide will only increase WiMAX’s value proposition.

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Perhaps no consumer electronics device launch has been more anticipated as this week’s iPhone launch. Engadget reveals that AT&T is even offering instructions to store managers and landlords on how to properly manage iPhone buying frenzies. 3screens.net compares it to the arrival of the Beatles. Apple and AT&T are either thrilled at the prospects or petrified that the reality won’t live up to the hype. Competitors to AT&T are also fairly anxious this week. They can only hope that the market research firm M:Metrics has it wrong when they predict that 67 percent of those who were most inclined to purchase an iPhone are subscribers on other carrier networks. Will that translate in to a mass exodus from the likes of Verizon Wireless, Sprint, and T-Mobile? Probably not, but they are certain to feel some pain.

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